Study supported by the Forest Development Fund (agreement No. 24-00-S0MF05-000003)
The Latvian State Forest Research Institute ''Silava'' conducts research related to the assessment and/or prediction of the short-term and long-term impact of various natural disturbances and silvicultural measures on forest stand parameters. The results of these studies reach industry professionals with high specialization and/or are integrated into national-level forecasts for strategic planning. LSFRI "Silava" has already developed a Latvian forest resource modeling system, which makes it possible to scientifically correctly characterize long-term changes in Latvian forest resources under various forestry scenarios, which provides support for strategic decision-making on the management of Latvian forest land and wood resources. Similarly, in individual studies, forecasting tools have been prepared for the assessment of specific aspects (for example, the risk of individual wind damage, the reference response of a specific species to thinning (stock care), etc.). However: a) there is a lack of a comprehensive, simple tool for integrating research results that can be used by the owner/manager of small forest areas, a student, or simply an interested person; b) existing systems do not integrate climate effects and the effects of intraspecies genetic variation in detail.
The aim of the Study is to prepare a publicly available and easy-to-use individual forest stand modelling tool for assessing the long-term impact of silvicultural measures and forest manager decisions.
Tasks of the Study
The Study has summarized, integrated, and supplemented available information on tree response to silvicultural measures, describing in mathematical form:
- The growth process of the stand, natural mortality and potential assortment yield in logging, as well as the potential impact on the climate change mitigation effect;
- The probability of stand loss (the cumulative impact of natural disturbances);
- The impact of climate change on tree growth (pine, spruce, birch).